I Have an Awesome Startup Idea

I want to talk about why ideas are not as important as you might think.

I previously wrote in my blog about "The Inevitability of Technology," where I argued in detail that the development of technology is self-independent. Even if Darwin had not discovered the theory of evolution, we would still commemorate the 150th anniversary of the theory today. The development of technology is even independent of humanity. Regardless of whether humans are willing, as long as the socio-economic level reaches a certain point, corresponding civilizations and technologies will inevitably emerge.

Alexander Bell and Elisha Gray both applied for telephone patents on February 14, 1876. This unlikely synchronicity (Gray applied 3 hours before Bell) led to mutual accusations of espionage, plagiarism, bribery, and fraud. Gray, misled by the hasty advice of his patent lawyer, submitted his application early because he thought the telephone technology "wasn't worth taking seriously." But regardless of whether the Bell dynasty or the Gray dynasty won, we would still see telephone lines everywhere, because even though Bell obtained the patent rights, there were inventors who had developed workable telephone models years before Gray. In fact, as early as 1860, Antonio Meucci had applied for a patent for his "long-distance voice transmission" technology, using principles similar to those of Bell and Gray, but due to his poor English, poverty, and lack of business acumen, he failed to extend his patent in 1874. Shortly after them, the incomparable Thomas Edison took the historical stage; although for unexplained reasons he did not win the telephone race, he invented a microphone suitable for telephones in 1877.

In 2009, the world commemorated the 200th anniversary of Charles Darwin's birth, recognizing the impact of his theory on human science and culture. The commemorative celebrations overlooked Alfred Russel Wallace, who established the same theory of evolution almost simultaneously—150 years ago. Strangely, both Wallace and Darwin developed the theory of natural selection after reading Thomas Malthus's work on population growth. After Wallace's similar discovery was published, Darwin was encouraged to publish his findings. If Darwin had died during his famous voyage (a fate not uncommon in that era) or succumbed to illness during his studies in London, we would be commemorating Wallace's birth, and he would become the sole genius behind this theory. Wallace was a naturalist living in Southeast Asia, also suffering from various ailments. In fact, while reading Malthus's work, he was afflicted by a debilitating jungle fever. Even if the impoverished Wallace were completely overwhelmed by this Indonesian disease, and Darwin passed away, notes from other naturalists indicate that someone else would have arrived at the theory of natural selection leading to evolution, even if they never read Malthus's work. Some believe that Malthus himself was close to generating such thoughts. These individuals would not articulate the theory in the same way, would not present the same arguments, and would not cite the same evidence, but nonetheless, today we would commemorate the 150th anniversary of the birth of natural evolution theory.

In fact, it is very likely that every new thing has many "parents." The first observations of sunspots were not made by two people, but by four independent observers, including Galileo, all in 1611. We know that the thermometer has six different inventors, and the subcutaneous injection needle has three. Edward Jenner had four scientists independently discover the efficacy of vaccination before him. Adrenaline was "first" isolated four times. The telegraph was repeatedly invented by Joseph Henry, Samuel Morse, William Cooke, Charles Wheatstone, and Karl Steinheil. Louis Daguerre is known as the inventor of photography, but there were three others—Nicephore Niepce, Hercules Florence, and William Henry Fox Talbot—who also researched the same technology. The invention of logarithms is usually credited to two mathematicians—John Napier and Henry Briggs—but in fact, the third mathematician, Joost Burgi, invented logarithms three years earlier than they did. Several inventors in both England and America simultaneously created typewriters. Two scientists predicted the existence of the eighth planet, Neptune, in 1846. Looking at three chemical examples, the liquefaction of oxygen, the electrolysis of aluminum, and the stereochemistry of carbon were all discovered by multiple people, with each of these discoveries occurring within about a month of each other.

Sociologists William Ogburn and Dorothy Thomas at Columbia University compiled the biographies, correspondence, and notes of scientists, collecting all similar discoveries and inventions found between 1420 and 1901. They wrote: "The steamship is considered the 'exclusive' invention of Fulton, Jouffroy, Ramsey, Stevens, and Westinghouse. At least six people, Davidson, Jacobi, Lilly, Davenport, Peggy, and Hall, claimed to have independently developed railway electrification technology. With railways and electric locomotives, wasn't railway electrification bound to appear?"

One day, you come up with a cool-sounding idea, and you think that if you tell others about it, they might steal your concept. Well, you are being too naive.

1. The idea is something that only you in the world have thought of (which is almost impossible), and even if you tell others about it, they will think you are crazy. Whether it's Copernicus proposing the heliocentric theory or Mendel discovering the laws of inheritance in 1865, the time was not ready for your crazy idea, and you would end up being the one labeled as mad.
2. If many people have thought of this idea, then the more likely scenario is that this idea has already been attempted by many, possibly even with demos made, or it may have already failed. You just don't know it.

The progress of technology always follows its own pace, step by step. Your idea may not even belong to you, but to technology itself. In the words of Dr. Wu Jun, "Technological revolutions are like tides; we are merely surfers, and the lucky ones among us will be at the crest of the wave."

To put it bluntly, your great idea is worth nothing at all.

My advice is that after you have an idea, you should look into the current projects in the industry related to it (there will definitely be some, but you might be able to do better than them), communicate your thoughts with people around you, gather opinions, and refine your idea. Others may help you discover many problems you hadn't noticed before.

In fact, the direction of technological progress is not mysterious; everyone can see the general direction. What this world lacks is not opportunities, nor the eyes to discover opportunities, nor even the people to seize opportunities; it's just that there are too many people dreaming of the sky.